Cyprus economic outlook positive but slowing, according to CCLEI index

The Cypriot economy continued its positive trajectory in March 2025, according to the Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) compiled by the University of Cyprus Economics Research Centre (CypERC), though signs of a slowdown are emerging amid growing international uncertainties.

The CCLEI rose by 1.7% year-over-year in March, following stronger increases of 2.3% in February and 2.4% in January, based on revised data. Despite the sustained upward trend, the data points to a gradual deceleration in the pace of economic growth.

The positive performance of the CCLEI, the CypERC says in its bulletin, "was bolstered by improvements in key domestic and international indicators." Notable contributors included increases in property sales contracts, higher values of Cypriot credit card transactions, and an expansion in retail sales volumes. A decline in Brent crude oil prices also supported economic momentum by easing costs for businesses and consumers.

However a dip in consumer confidence both in Cyprus and across the eurozone weighed negatively on the index. Additionally, a fall in electricity production volumes and a decrease in tourist arrivals further limited the Index’s growth, highlighting vulnerabilities in some sectors.

"The recent trend of the CCLEI remains upward, but it is slowing down," the CypERC research team said. They pointed to ongoing international economic uncertainty as a major factor impacting the current and future growth prospects for Cyprus.

The CCLEI, based on a model developed by Aruoba, Diebold, and Scotti and adapted for the post-pandemic era, serves as an early warning system for shifts in the country's economic cycle. It incorporates a range of indicators, from credit card transactions and retail sales to oil prices and economic sentiment indices.