The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), produced and estimated by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus, recorded a milder year-on-year decline of 0.43% in July 2026, according to the latest revised data.
The decline compares with a 0.69% year-on-year decrease in June and a 1.34% decline in May, indicating a gradual easing of the negative trend amid heightened external and geopolitical pressures.
The milder decline in July reflected opposing developments among the index's individual components. The weighted Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) deteriorated compared with July 2025, mainly reflecting weaker economic sentiment across all sectors of the Cypriot economy. At the same time, Brent crude oil prices increased year-on-year, while tourist arrivals remained below last year's levels.
Positive contributions from property sales contracts, retail trade and electricity production partly offset these negative developments. The CypERC said property sales contracts, Cypriot credit card transactions, the retail trade sales volume index and the temperature-adjusted electricity production volume index continued to provide support to the index.
Overall, the milder year-on-year decline in the CCLEI suggests that downward pressures on economic activity are easing, although short-term challenges facing the Cypriot economy remain.
The CCLEI is designed to provide early warning signals of turning points in the business cycle and Cyprus' economic activity. It comprises a range of domestic and international leading indicators, including Brent crude oil prices, economic sentiment in Cyprus and the euro area, property sales contracts, tourist arrivals, Cypriot credit card transactions, retail trade and temperature-adjusted electricity production.
The July estimate incorporated available weekly data on Brent crude oil prices and electricity production, monthly data on economic sentiment in Cyprus and the euro area and property sales contracts, as well as preliminary data on tourist arrivals and retail trade.
