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Noticeable slowdown in CCLEI growth rate in January

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), an essential metric constructed and tracked by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus, has shown a noticeable deceleration in its year-over-year growth rate for January 2024.

According to recent data released by CypERC, the CCLEI recorded a modest year-over-year increase of 0.9% in January 2024, marking a notable decline from the preceding months' growth rates of 1.7% in December 2023 and 2.1% in November 2023, as per revised figures.

The performance of the CCLEI in January 2024 is attributed to escalating international geopolitical tensions, particularly the unfolding military conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. Additionally, a general slowdown in economic activity across the Eurozone has a negative impact on Cyprus' economic indicators.

In more detail, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in the euro area recorded a negative year-over-year growth rate also in January 2024, while a significant slowdown was observed in the year-over-year growth rate of the ESI in Cyprus as well. In addition, the negative year-over-year growth rate recorded by the total property sales contracts and tourist arrivals contributed to the slowdown in the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in January.

In contrast, the positive year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in January can be attributed to the slight decline in the international Brent Crude oil price and the growth of various domestic sectors, including retail trade and electricity production.

(Source: CNA)

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