The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) remained in negative territory in June 2026, recording a year-on-year decline of 0.65%, reflecting continued external pressures and subdued economic activity amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, according to the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus.
The Centre said the latest annual decline follows similar contractions recorded in previous months, indicating that the short-term outlook for the Cypriot economy continues to be weighed down by an uncertain international environment.
The negative performance of the CCLEI was driven primarily by the weighted Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which combines economic sentiment in Cyprus and the euro area. The indicator remained below its June 2025 level, mainly reflecting weaker business and consumer confidence in Cyprus.
Additional downward pressure came from higher year-on-year Brent crude oil prices, while the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production and tourist arrivals also posted annual declines.
However, several components of the index continued to provide support to economic activity, limiting the overall negative impact. Positive contributions came from the value of transactions with Cypriot credit cards, the retail sales volume index, and property sales contracts.
Overall, CypERC said the June reading suggests that the Cypriot economy continues to face short-term challenges stemming mainly from the uncertain international economic and geopolitical environment. At the same time, the resilience shown by domestic consumption and the property market indicates that some sectors continue to underpin economic activity.
The CCLEI is designed to provide early warning signals of turning points in Cyprus' business cycle. It is compiled using a range of leading indicators that tend to precede changes in overall economic activity, including the Economic Sentiment Indicator, Brent crude oil prices, tourist arrivals, Cypriot credit card transactions, retail sales, property sales contracts, and temperature-adjusted electricity production.
According to CypERC, the June 2026 estimate is based on available weekly data for Brent crude oil prices and electricity production, monthly data on the Economic Sentiment Indicator for Cyprus and the euro area, as well as preliminary data on property sales contracts, tourist arrivals, and retail trade.
