The CEO playbook for a new era

As we progress through 2025, the world stands at a pivotal moment, shaped by continuous global and regional disruptions that have tested the resilience of our businesses and economies as a whole.

The lessons of the past five years have not only fortified Cypriot businesses but also positioned Cyprus as a beacon of resilience and opportunity in a turbulent world. Lockdowns and travel restrictions during the pandemic in 2020, combined with the sharp decline in tourist arrivals from Russia and Ukraine following the war that erupted in 2022, exposed the vulnerabilities of a less diversified economy such as Cyprus. Yet, local firms demonstrated remarkable adaptability, redirecting efforts towards new markets, while the influx of companies relocating to Cyprus in search of a stable EU base, further bolstered the ICT and financial services sectors, reducing dependency on any single market. This highlighted the value of diversification and proactive market expansion, the need for robust risk management, and the power of strategic investments in digital infrastructure and brand resilience to future-proof businesses.

Today, the ongoing trade war has introduced new uncertainties in supply chains, thereby presenting fresh challenges to Cyprus’ import-reliant economy. However, as a Co-founder of an investment consulting and deals advisory firm, I draw my optimism for the economic trajectory of Cyprus, from the recent lessons learned and the agility the local enterprises have demonstrated.

STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES IN A CHANGING WORLD

Accept Uncertainty as a Constant

Developments over the last five years have taught us that there is nothing more certain than uncertainty. Management must accept that decisions will often need to be made with incomplete information - and act decisively despite unknowns.

Inaction is a Decision

Choosing not to act in the face of uncertainty is, itself, a strategic choice - one with consequences. The risk of inaction must be weighed against the opportunities presented by market dislocations, such as acquiring undervalued assets or investing in supply chain resilience.

Anticipate Second- and Third-Order Consequences

Potential ripple effects should be modelled, contingency plans prepared to mitigate these risks, and investments made to strengthen supply chain resilience

Evaluate Long-Term Investments

Ensure decisions align with long-term profitability, liquidity and exit considerations.

Maintain Global Relationships

Strengthen ties with global partners, emphasizing collaboration to secure supply chains and market access - countering isolationist trends that could harm long-term growth.

Seize Opportunities in Distress

Capitalize on undervalued assets or distressed opportunities while maintaining robust risk management practices.

Looking into the rest of 2025, I expect Cyprus to sustain its growth trajectory, with the focus shifting to deepening diversification, investing in lowering the energy cost, enhancing digital transformation and securing both the numbers and skillsets of human capital needed to drive growth.

From our experience and interactions with clients, we notice that effectively navigating today’s dynamic landscape requires a proactive approach to refining investment strategies and strengthening governance frameworks. It is advisable to integrate data-driven insights and proven market practices to support more informed, agile decision-making. We also encourage a continuous evaluation of opportunities in sectors such as real estate, energy, financial services, and technology, both in Cyprus and internationally, as part of a diversified investment outlook.

Business leaders and investment decision makers must lead with courage and pragmatism, recognizing that waiting for certainty is a recipe for missed opportunities. By preparing for diverse scenarios, fortifying supply chains, and acting decisively in times of duress, companies can not only weather economic storms but emerge stronger. The future is unknowable, but strategic foresight and disciplined execution can position firms to thrive amid uncertainty.

• By George Campanellas, Co-founder of XPADIA