Cyprus Leading Economic Index still positive, albeit decelerating
14:22 - 21 November 2023
The year-over-year growth rate of the Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) in October 2023 remains positive, albeit decelerating, according to the Economics Research Centre (ERC) of the University of Cyprus.
The ERC says that the Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index constructed by the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus, recorded a year-over-year increase of 1.5% in October 2023, following the year-over-year increases of 1.9% and 2.1% recorded in September and August 2023, respectively (based on recent and revised data).
The recent military conflicts in Israel, it says, further burdened the already strained international geopolitical environment, negatively affecting the October CCLEI.
More specifically, the increased geopolitical tensions have reignited economic uncertainty, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in the euro area deteriorating throughout the entire year of 2023.
In addition, the upward trajectory of the CCLEI is restrained by the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, which continues to record a year-over-year decrease since May 2023.
Nevertheless, it adds, the growth of various domestic sectors, including tourism, retail trade, and real estate, as well as subdued oil prices offset the above negative developments with the October CCLEI recording a positive year-over-year growth rate.
"In summary, the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in October 2023 remains positive, albeit decelerating. The drop in the year-over-year CCLEI growth rate to lower levels than in previous months reflects the uncertain geopolitical and volatile economic environment prevailing, which inevitably negatively affects the growth prospects of the Cypriot economy," it concludes.